摘要: 氣候變化的檢測與歸因是研究觀測到的系統(tǒng)或變量的變化是否具有顯著性，外強迫及外驅(qū)動因子是否是他們變化的原因。這是一個從各種外強迫與驅(qū)動因子開始到氣候系統(tǒng)，自然與生物系統(tǒng)，社會經(jīng)濟系統(tǒng)各部分對強迫響應(yīng)以及他們之間相互作用的因果鏈。GPGP綜合的4種檢測歸因方法囊括了目前研究這一因果鏈的不同途徑。自1990年IPCC 第一次評價報告以來氣候變化的檢測與歸因經(jīng)歷了從全球尺度，半球，海洋與陸地，7大洲乃至區(qū)域尺度氣溫升高和其他系統(tǒng)或變量變化趨勢的研究。人為氣候變化的指紋檢測與歸因方法已普遍用于全球大尺度水文循環(huán)要素—緯度帶平均降水，強降水，徑流，比濕，水汽含量等時空型態(tài)變化的研究，個別地也應(yīng)用到流域尺度， 以冰雪融化補給為主河流的天然流量，積雪和最低溫度變化的研究. 對于以降水為主，且受人類活動干擾較大的流域，水文循環(huán)要素觀測變化的檢測與歸因研究大多數(shù)聚焦于觀測的氣候要素，非氣候變量對其影響，而不回答變化是自然的還是人為強迫引起的。這種方法要求足夠長的高質(zhì)量的氣候與非氣候觀測數(shù)據(jù)，先進的統(tǒng)計檢驗技術(shù)，物理基礎(chǔ)好的水文模型。他們對于正確認識因果關(guān)系的過程至關(guān)重要。對于觀測資料好，水文循環(huán)要素對氣候變化敏感的流域，采用正規(guī)的檢測與歸因方法或最優(yōu)指紋法識別外強迫及驅(qū)動因子的影響將是一項十分有意義并有發(fā)展前景的研究。 科學學術(shù)報告翻譯|環(huán)保翻譯案例|北京科學翻譯|技術(shù)翻譯公司
關(guān)鍵詞：IPCC評價報告，氣候變化，水文循環(huán)，檢測與歸因
Some views on Detection and Attribution of observed changes in hydrological cycle due to global warming
Abstract: Detection and Attribution is to study on whether observed changes in a system or an variable are detectable and external forcings and/or drivers are the cause of their observed changes. This is an interactive cause-effect chain from external forcing, drivers to climate system, physical and biological, socio-economic systems and interaction each other as well. GPGP synthesized 4 different methods of detection and attribution to approach to it.
Since 1990 detection and attribution have been undergoing refined in time and space process from global, half-hemisphere, marine, land and 7 continents. Fingerprinting method has been extensively applied in recognition patterns of variation in space and time of elements of hydrological cycle such as zone precipitation, extreme precipitation, specific humidity, lower tropospheric moisture content,stemflow effecting by external forcings in global large scale and natural runoff, snow pack and minimum temperature in some river basin scale,
In river basins recharged by precipitation and effected by human activities, detection and attribution of elements of hydrological cycle are mainly focused on analytical approaches to linking observed changes to changes in temperature, precipitation and nonclimatic factors without the emphasis on causation by the anthropogenic component of climate change. For this kind of approch long term observed climatic and nonclimatic data, advanced statistic technology and hydrological model with physical basis are very important for recognition of processe in cause-effect relation. In river basin with high qualified long term observed climate and nonclimate data and hydrological variables sensitive to climate change, optimal fingerprinting method will be valuable in detection and attribution studies.
Keywords: IPCC assesement reports, climate change, hydrological cycle, detection and attribution.科學學術(shù)報告翻譯|環(huán)保翻譯案例|北京科學翻譯|技術(shù)翻譯公司
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